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film news

Thursty's Stinky Box Office: Great Odin's Raven Edition

Posted by Thurston McQ on Thursday, May 5, 2011

Thor's here.  Some people are excited about it.  I am some people.  I need to see it to get a better idea of how well I think Avengers will work.  Marvel is banking on lots of people doing the same.  They're looking at Fast Five's box office for last weekend, and they're thinking, We wouldn't mind a weekend like that.

I'm thinking they'll probably almost get it.  It'll be close.  Unfortunately, they'll still have Fast Five to contend with.  It's liable to make anywhere from 35-50% of last weekend's gross, which should cut into Thor a little.  Since Thor's mostly 3D and Fast Five is entirely 2D, however, they should give one another a little breathing room.

Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed are presenting themselves as the anti-Thor.  Despite them both being wedding movies, they appeal to different demographics, and shouldn't cancel one another out entirely.  (Sure, it's a little disturbing that there's a Kate Hudson demographic, but it's no more disturbing than there being a Larry the Cable Guy demographic.)  The demographics are different enough, in fact, that Madea might hurt Jumping the Broom more than Something Borrowed will.  

All right.  Here's the part where I stop writing the box office column and jump to the predicting.  I have Thor tickets.

Predictions:

1.  Thor     $78.00m
2.  Fast Five     $32.25m
3.  Something Borrowed     $12.50m
4.  Rio     $9.25m
5.  Jumping the Broom     $9.00m
6.  Water for Elephants     $5.75m
7.  Madea's Going to Rape Your Mind     $5.50m
8.  Prom     $2.50m
9.  Hoodwinked 2     $2.15m
10.  Soul Surfer     $2.10m

Disagree? Let me know by 11:59 EST Friday night. If your predictions come closer than mine to the actual weekend grosses, I will celebrate your superior skills in the Grovel Pit.

Adam54
Location:
Posts: 2082
Posted: 11 years 30 weeks ago

 I'm back and after some Thursty Blood. 

1. Thor $72.2M

2. Fast Five $34.4M

3. Something Borrowed $14.5M

4. Jumping The Broom $10M

5. Rio $9.8M

6. Water for Elephants $6.0M

7. Whatever Tyler Perry's Done This Time: $5M

8. Prom $3.8M

9. Hoodwinked 2: Wink Hoodier: $3M 

10. Soul Surfer: $2.5M

WarCry
Location:
Posts: 152
Posted: 11 years 30 weeks ago

 I didn't predict the whole list, but on 4/4/11 on another site, I put my predictions for Thor at $70M. I'm still pretty confortable/confident in that number with the 3D screenings.

 You don't have to like it, you just have to do it. --Richard Marcinko
Adam54
Location:
Posts: 2082
Posted: 11 years 30 weeks ago

 Agreed. I think Thursty overshot his wad on that one. 

atrejub
Location:
Posts: 739
Posted: 11 years 30 weeks ago

It was close. Adam's lower percentages on Prom and Hoodwinked Too are the only reason why Thursty isn't groveling this week.

Actuals
1. Thor, $65.72m
2. Fast Five, 32.45
3. Jumping the Broom, 15.22
4. Something Borrowed, 13.95
5. Rio, 8.5
6. Water for Elephants, 6.07
7. Tyler Perry, 4.18
8. Soul Surfer, 2.3
9. Prom, 2.21
10. Hoodwinked Too, 2.04

Thursty
1. Thor $78.00m - 84.26%
2. Fast Five $32.25m - 99.38%
3. Something Borrowed - 89.61%
4. Rio $9.25m - 91.89%
5. Jumping the Broom $9.00m - 59.13%
6. Water for Elephants $5.75m - 94.73%
7. Madea's Going to Rape Your Mind $5.50m - 76.00%
8. Prom $2.50m - 88.40%
9. Hoodwinked 2 $2.15m - 94.88%
10. Soul Surfer $2.10m - 91.30%
Average: 86.96%

Adam54
1. Thor $72.2M - 91.02%
2. Fast Five $34.4M - 94.33%
3. Something Borrowed $14.5M - 96.21%
4. Jumping The Broom $10M - 65.70%
5. Rio $9.8M - 86.73%
6. Water for Elephants $6.0M - 98.85%
7. Whatever Tyler Perry's Done This Time: $5M - 83.60%
8. Prom $3.8M - 58.16%
9. Hoodwinked 2: Wink Hoodier: $3M - 68.00%
10. Soul Surfer: $2.5M - 92.00%
Average: 83.46%