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She was only underage depending on where you live!
I kind of want to see Take me Home Tonight. And Unknown. The kids want to see Rango.
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Thursty's Stinky Box Office: Goodbye and Good Riddance, January I and January II! Edition
Posted by Thurston McQ on Friday, March 4, 2011
March is finally here, which means studios are going to start allowing you to suckle at the teats of movies they aren't quite as ashamed to show you.
This weekend you get four new major releases. Most of them are modest, but you'll be getting at least one huge one in the mix. You're also going to be getting the very last hurrah for the Oscar nominees. The big winner was The King's Speech, and it's also likely to be the only one in the group to stay in the top ten. Say your last farewells to True Grit and Black Swan. The next time you see them pop up, it will be on a rental/sales list.
Let's look at what the first weekend in March has to offer us (other than historically-inconsistent-with-this-time-of-year weather). We'll start with the more modest releases. First up are Take Me Home Tonight and Beastly. The former is being released tojust over 2,000 theaters, and the latter is being released to just under. Take Me Home Tonight is the Topher Grace movie 73.58% of all critics are leaping over one another to call That '80s Movie. Beastly is the Beauty and the Beast adaptation featuring that guy who failed to make as big a splash with I Am Number Four (or, as Ebert puts it, "Twice the Number Two"; I guess that means the splash it made for him was... IN THE TOILET!!!) as folks were hoping. It also hasthe chick from High School Musical whose underage nude pics are probably still on Jakester's hard drive. I don't see either of these two making much money. If they make it into the top ten, they'll probably make it in on the lower end.
The Adjustment Bureau, at a little under 3,000 theaters, comes closer to being a big release. It feels like they've been advertising this thing for decades. It's been marketed well, and it's Damon. It'll do just fine. It won't doquite as well as this weekend's mammoth release, but it'll make enough money to beat out everything else.
The weekend's biggest release is Nickelodeon/Paramount's Rango. It'll be in almost 4,000 theaters. 4,000 theaters is a summer figure. It's a re-teaming for Verbinski and Depp, but it has the support of a fairly strong vocal cast (Isla Fisher, Abigail Breslin, Alfred Molina, Bill Nighy, Harry Dean Stanton, Ray Winstone, Timothy Olyphant) beyond Depp. It will have some direct competition from Gnomeo and Juliet (why not "Gnomiet"? Why does Juliet get to keep her name when Romeo has to settle for the idiotic sounding "Gnomeo"?), but it should shrug it off without a problem. Expect it to win the weekend, and expect it to win big. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up doubling The Adjustment Bureau's take.
Predictions:
1. Rango $41.50m
2. The Adjustment Bureau $19.75m
3. The King's Speech $8.75m
4. Gnomeo and Juliet $8.00m
5. Hall Pass $7.50m
6. Unknown $7.45m
7. Beastly $6.75m
8. I Am Number Four $6.00m
9. Take Me Home Tonight $5.25m
10. Bieber Las Vegas $4.50m
Disagree? Let me know by 11:59 EST Fridaynight. If your predictions come closer than mine to the actual weekend grosses, I will celebrate your superior skills in the Grovel Pit.
Goiter and I went to a midnight showing of Rango last night.
It was very enjoyable. If you like Westerns at all, you'll like it. Lots of movie references, but not in the "you won't enjoy it if you haven't seen those movies" or in an in-your face sort of way (For example, I have not seen Chinatown, and there were apparently a ton of references to it that Goiter remarked on, but I really enjoyed the movie even with not catching those).
I would argue that it is more a movie for adults than for kids, but I'm sure they'll enjoy it too (since it was a midnight show, there weren't any kids in the theater, so I can't tell you how kids reacted to it). If we had kids, we would have taken them without any question. Actual line from the movie: "I once found a human spinal column in my feces." :)
I'm pretty sure, barring a barage of excellent movies later in the year, that this will land in my Top 5 for 2011 list. Also has an excellent soundtrack.
Atrejub, are you banned from participating in the box office predictions due to your "relationship" to the originator or is it just that Goiter has to grovel to you no matter what, so what's the point?
Turn your head and cough!
I've thrown in predictions a couple of weeks when no one else made any. I'm really really awful at it though, so if I needed to rely on beating him in box office predictions in order to get some groveling, I would never be groveled to. I'm too optimistic, and I forget that most people don't go to the movies as often as we do.
I've instead resigned myself to tallying up the percentages every week when the actuals appear. I impress Goiter with my Excel skills, and he grovels in appreciation for that.
The actuals are in, so it's time for me to tally me some banana...
Actuals
1. Rango, $38.08 million
2. Adjustment Bureau, 21.16
3. Beastly, 9.85
4. Hall Pass, 8.86
5. Gnomeo, 7.24
6. Unknown, 6.52
7. Just Go With It, 6.43
8. King's Speech, 6.23
9. Number 4, 5.75 (missed the "times 2" joke by 1 spot!)
10. Bieber, 4.28
11. Take Me Home Tonight, 3.46
Thursty
1. Rango, 91.76%
2. The Adjustment Bureau, 93.34%
3. The King's Speech, 71.20%
4. Gnomeo and Juliet, 90.50%
5. Hall Pass, 84.65%
6. Unknown, 87.52%
7. Beastly, 68.53%
8. I Am Number Four, 95.83%
9. Take Me Home Tonight, 65.90%
10. Bieber Las Vegas, 95.11%
Average: 84.43%
Adam54
1. Rango, 96.64%
2. Adjustment Bureau, 95.75%
3. The King's Speech, 61.68%
4. Gnomeo and Juliet, 81.35%
5. Hall Pass, 85.21%
6. Unknown, 89.32%
7. Beastly, 73.60%
8. I Am Number Four (times 2!), 92.74%
9. Take Me Home Tonight, 59.66%
10. Bieberpalooza, 85.60%
Average: 82.15%
No groveling once again this week!
Rats! I knew I was close and thought I might've gotten you, but alas, no groveling for me. Well played, Thursty. I'll get you next week.
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Adam54
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1. Rango $36.8M
2. Adjustment Bureau $22.1M
3. The King's Speech 10.1M
4. Gnomeo and Juliet 8.9M
5. Hall Pass 7.55M
6. Unknown 7.3M
7. Beastly 7.25M
8. I Am Number Four (times 2!) 6.2M
9. Take Me Home Tonight $5.8M
10. Bieberpalooza: 5M