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The predict Man of Steel's opening box office weekend thread

Posted by Corporal_Hicks on Monday, June 3, 2013

$220,000,000

The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

I wouldn't be surprised if it reeled in about half of that. A couple weeks ago, early projections/tracking were putting it somewhere in the $110 million range for the opening weekend. There's still about a week-and-a-half for that number to fluctuate depending on word-of-mouth and Internet presence.

The latest tracking info I found brought it down to $90 million. No reason was given for the sharp drop. It could be that Warner Bros. has a hand in it, and they're trying to undersell it so that they can crow about the $100 million-plus opening. If they do have a hand in it, they're playing a dangerous game. It could come off like people are oversaturated with the marketing and losing interest. 

It should have a big opening weekend. It won't be Iron Man 3 big, but it will still be big. It's the only new movie going into wide release, and there will be plenty of distance from its primary competition. Iron Man 3 was released forever ago, the demand for Star Trek will have died down, and it will have been three weekends since the release of Fast 6. There's almost nothing in between Fast 6 and Man of Steel that the Man of Steel age group will want to see. Competing studios knew better. There's This Is the End the weekend before, but that's pretty much it. It's a comedy, so it shouldn't eat into Man of Steel's box office too much.

Man of Steel has brand recognition heavily in its favor. That said, it has the Superman Returns and Dark Knight Rises fallouts working against it. Oddly enough, both had pretty positive critical receptions coming out of the gate, but people soured to both movies once they had been out a bit. Some people will hold their dislike of Superman Returns against Man of Steel. Some will hold their dislike of Snyder or Nolan against it. It'll still steamroll all over the weekend despite this.

The next-to-last piece of the puzzle will be the 2D/3D/Imax ratio. The numbers will go up or down depending on how many of the showings will be in 3D. It's a post conversion, so that may also affect the level of enthusiasm for the 3D. I don't know the 2D/3D/Imax numbers yet (they may be out there; I haven't looked), so I'm hesitant to venture a guess on how the numbers will influence the box office.

Early critical reception could help or harm. That's the last piece of the tracking puzzle. By 11-12 June 2013, that last piece will have fallen into place, and everyone will be working with the same weekend tracking numbers. I seriously doubt the projected numbers will dip below $90 million, and I seriously doubt they'll jump up over $125 million. The final tracking number will fall somewhere between those two numbers, and most box office forecasters will take a gamble and go anywhere between $5 million over or under the final tracking number.

Corporal_Hicks
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

$220,000,000

Unless it's like 3 hours long.

Sent from Dalton's IPad.
The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

It's 143 minutes long.

Space Tycoon
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Money, money, money.

The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Filthy lucre!

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

I thought Superman Returns would do much more than it did.  The reviews of that, despite whatever our 20/20 hindsight tells us, were very strong.

It is a hard one to call.  There is a lot of hype and the interest amongst people like us is huge.  Outside of people like us...... well, I have had a few "There's a new Superman movie coming out?  Really?  When?" conversations with people.

Also, a lot of laymen seem to find Supes boring.  A bit too infallible / undefeatable, at least in their view.

If the early reviews come out very, very strong then it could boost.  If it captures that "You HAVE to see this!" word of mouth then it might be that it has legs at the BO and makes good returns, but over a longer period.

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

They're really, really hoping people's recognition of the S ("It's not an S!") will sell it. They're at least a little worried that people won't know that Man of Steel is a Superman movie. There was a similar concern with The Dark Knight, but Heath Ledger's death made awareness so high that pretty much everyone moviegoer in America knew The Dark Knight was a Batman movie by opening weekend.

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Why not "Superman: Man Of Steel" for the title?

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Nolan said, "No."

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Him with his fancy-pants "The Dark Knight" thinks he don't need no brand or nuffin' !!!

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
Adam54
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

 I'm gonna guess $80 million for the weekend.

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

 So it has to do, what, $300m to break even, given production costs, marketing etc?

I think a key metric will be if it beats Superman Returns, adjusted for inflation after 7yrs with a slice of 3D on top.

One element is missing a little from the trailers and TV spots.  The romance.  Lois and Supes should be played up a bit more.  This angle extends the demographic.  It helped make Lois & Clark do good TV business.

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

The production budget is $175 million, according to a Forbes article linked to on Wikipedia. The conventional wisdom calls for the production budget to be tripled before a profit can be turned. It'll need to make $525 worldwide for the studio to be happy with it. It has a definite shot at doing this. If it doesn't do it while it's in theaters, it will almost surely manage it when it goes to home video.

The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Daltons chin dimple wrote:

One element is missing a little from the trailers and TV spots.  The romance.

Expect them to play that up a week or two after it is released. They're concentrating on teenage boys for the first wave. In many ways, they're the more fickle group. They're more interested in seeing something the second it comes out and never going back to see it again. Teenage girls, on the other hand, are more likely to go later in a movie's life (once the boys have backed off a bit), and if they're intrigued enough by the romance, they're more likely to give something repeat business--often via group outings.

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

 I question that conventional wisdom these days.  I know that one decent runaway blockbuster can bankroll a studio for a while, but the general rate of return on moviemaking can be so low that money men wonder why they do it.......  but they do it for that one golden hit!

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

 This thinking excludes DVD and PPV then TV etc. inc merchandise.

If the triple figure includes those, then I broadly agree.

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
neglet
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

 I know I'm waiting for reviews before I decide to go. I'm guessing under or close to $100 mill for opening weekend.

The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Daltons chin dimple wrote:

 This thinking excludes DVD and PPV then TV etc. inc merchandise.If the triple figure includes those, then I broadly agree.

It includes those.

Col_Matrix
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

I'd set the over/under at 100 mil  if I were Vegas.  Give or take a few million.  Here's hoping it kills at the box office, is a good movie, and has sequels where the Blur fights women transformed into computer monsters!

"You think we can smell them coming?"
Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Remember when he got Super-Angry and then Super-Drunk and flicked peanuts Super-Hard?

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

It's not the kind of thing a person forgets.

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

His dark, dirty costume looked kinda like the new Cavill costume.

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"
Quasar
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Foreshadowing?

Faster and faster, a nightmare we ride. Who'll take the reins when the miracle dies? Faster and faster till everything dies. Killing is our way of keeping alive. - Virgin Steele, Blood and Gasoline
The Swollen Goi...
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

Reeve was three inches taller than Cavill is. Going from Reeve to Cavill is less like foreshadowing and more like foreshortening.

Daltons chin dimple
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Posted: 7 years 38 weeks ago

 So when they say Cavill has big shoes to fill, it's literal?

....says "Kill Bond, NOW!"